Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and aligned models indicate a nighttime low of 12–13°C in Beijing on October 12, 2026, driven by a recent cold front, clearing skies promoting radiative cooling, and northerly winds advecting drier air. This synoptic pattern aligns with historical October minima for the region and supports the market’s near-certain 13°C outcome. Resolution hinges on official station readings, typically the lowest hourly value at designated sites. Minor deviations remain possible from localized urban heat effects, exact timing of the minimum, or last-minute forecast shifts, though current consensus across agencies leaves little room for alternatives like 16°C.