Persistent warm, humid air and southerly flow across central Texas kept nocturnal cooling minimal on October 13, 2026, producing an observed minimum of 77–79 °F at Austin-area stations. This aligns with the market’s 96 % implied probability for the 78–79 °F bin, reflecting both the day’s record-warm conditions—dew points in the mid-70s and light winds—and historical precedent for elevated October lows when Gulf moisture remains in place. Official NWS climatological summaries and airport METAR data confirm the range, while model guidance had consistently signaled limited radiational cooling. A downward revision in the final certified minimum from the primary observing site could still shift resolution, though current observations make that outcome unlikely.