Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies, including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and European models, indicate Ankara's minimum temperature on October 13 will likely fall between 11–13°C amid partly cloudy to overcast skies, light southerly winds, and intermittent showers that limit radiative cooling. These conditions, following a mild early-October period with daytime highs near 20–22°C, have driven the 50% market-implied probability on 8°C or below, reflecting trader focus on potential model revisions or localized cooling pockets. Upcoming hourly updates from official monitoring stations will clarify whether the overnight low dips further under sustained cloud cover or remains closer to seasonal averages around 12°C.