**Trader consensus centers on a 9°C minimum in Amsterdam on October 14, 2026, driven by GFS and other model runs showing overnight lows settling near that level under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow.** High pressure and mild maritime air have kept temperatures above the seasonal average low of around 8°C, with limited radiative cooling due to cloud cover and winds preventing deeper drops. Official forecasts consistently indicate minima of 10–12°C, aligning closely with the market-implied outcome. A sudden clearing of skies or a sharper model shift could allow slightly lower readings, but current conditions and the proximity to resolution make significant deviation unlikely.