President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a National Assembly majority that blocks the two-thirds supermajority needed for impeachment, keeping the motion’s prospects remote through 2026. Recent Realmeter polling showed his approval rating falling to 35.2 percent amid clashes over Supreme Court Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae’s judicial independence, a DMZ landmine incident, and rising Seoul-area housing costs, while the opposition People Power Party edged ahead in party support. These pressures have fueled parliamentary audits and opposition criticism yet produced no defections or procedural momentum toward a presidential impeachment vote. Constitutional rules require 200 votes for passage, a threshold unreachable without broad ruling-party support that has not materialized. Trader consensus on the “No” outcome at 94 percent reflects this stable legislative arithmetic despite short-term political friction.