Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, elected in January 2025 to a six-year term, continues to exercise official duties without any scheduled election, resignation process, or constitutional removal mechanism before December 31, 2026. Recent developments include his meetings with EU and U.S. officials on security arrangements to replace UNIFIL after its mandate ends, ongoing framework talks with Israel, and public statements emphasizing state authority over weapons and diplomatic negotiations. Strains with Hezbollah over disarmament have surfaced but have not produced parliamentary moves or institutional challenges to his position. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.3% probability on “No” aligns with the absence of near-term catalysts for his departure, though unforeseen political ruptures or health events could still shift outcomes before year-end.