Strong domestic maritime industry opposition, backed by shipbuilders, unions, and congressional leaders including House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, has reinforced the Jones Act's protected status amid ongoing temporary energy waivers. These waivers, first issued in March 2026 and extended through mid-November with narrowed scope and case-by-case approvals, address supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict but face mounting pressure to lapse once the national defense rationale diminishes following the recent ceasefire. No legislative proposals for full repeal or permanent removal have advanced in Congress, and historical patterns show waivers remain short-term exceptions rather than pathways to statutory change. The implied 92% probability on "No" reflects trader consensus that entrenched interests and procedural barriers make comprehensive reform by year-end improbable absent major new developments.