**John Ratcliffe remains firmly in place as CIA Director, with traders assigning an 81.5% probability that he will not depart by December 31, 2026.** Confirmed by the Senate in January 2025 on a 74-25 vote after nomination by President Trump, Ratcliffe has served continuously since his swearing-in and continues to lead agency operations, including technology modernization, cyber initiatives, and intelligence support for administration priorities such as China-focused collection and counter-narcotics efforts. Recent activity reinforces stability. In late August 2026 he conducted an unannounced visit to Moscow for meetings with Russian intelligence counterparts on Ukraine-related issues, followed by public remarks in October 2026 highlighting Beijing as a top threat. Official agency materials and reporting through early October 2026 describe him as actively directing the CIA with no announced departures, performance concerns, or administration signals of change. Cabinet-level positions like this typically align with the president’s term unless specific controversies arise, and none have surfaced here to shift the consensus reflected in current market pricing.