Tensions between Israel and Turkey have intensified since the 2023 Gaza war and the 2024 fall of the Assad regime in Syria, with competing influence in post-Assad Syria emerging as the primary flashpoint. An August 2026 Israeli airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib—intended, according to Jerusalem, to block an anticipated Turkish deployment—drew sharp Turkish condemnation but no military retaliation, prompting U.S. diplomatic efforts to reinforce deconfliction mechanisms involving Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Both governments have repeatedly stated they seek to avoid direct confrontation, while domestic pressures in Israel ahead of its October 27 elections and U.S. mediation under President Trump have further contained escalation risks. Rhetoric remains elevated over Gaza, Hamas support, and Eastern Mediterranean issues, yet these factors have sustained trader consensus that no direct military clash will occur before the end of 2026.