US-mediated talks under the June 2026 trilateral framework agreement remain the central factor shaping prospects for a high-level Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting. Progress has stalled over sequencing disputes, with Israel conditioning further withdrawals on Hezbollah disarmament while Lebanon seeks implementation of prior commitments first. Recent envoy-level contacts in Washington and reports of a potential ceasefire deal under cabinet review have sustained limited momentum, yet Lebanese officials have stated no new direct talks are underway. Postponed Rome negotiations and Israeli domestic considerations add uncertainty ahead of any scheduled rounds. Trader consensus reflects these persistent barriers alongside US diplomatic pressure for incremental steps.