Traders assign a 96.5% probability against Israel-Lebanon normalization before 2027 because the June 2026 U.S.-mediated trilateral framework agreement remains stalled over core sequencing disputes, with Israel conditioning full withdrawal on Hezbollah disarmament and the Lebanese state asserting monopoly over arms, while Hezbollah rejects both the deal and any link to its weapons. As of mid-October 2026, Israeli forces continue operations in southern Lebanon pilot zones, talks scheduled for Rome have been postponed, and Lebanese officials including President Joseph Aoun emphasize security arrangements and UNIFIL continuity rather than diplomatic normalization or Abraham Accords-style ties. Hezbollah maintains rejection and operational capacity amid Iranian support, while internal Lebanese divisions block consensus on state control. Realistic shifts before year-end could include verified phased withdrawals tied to Lebanese Army deployments in designated zones or renewed direct talks resolving verification mechanisms, though entrenched positions make rapid progress improbable.