Lebanese leaders continue to reject any path to normalization with Israel, citing the stalled June 2026 trilateral framework agreement that conditions Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon on Hezbollah’s verified disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces control. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri explicitly dismissed normalization talks on October 12, insisting implementation must follow UN-backed terms rather than political negotiations, while President Joseph Aoun noted Israel has not met prior commitments and confirmed no active talks. Israeli forces remain in buffer zones amid ongoing operations against Hezbollah infrastructure, and domestic Lebanese opposition, including from Hezbollah, blocks progress toward diplomatic relations. These entrenched sequencing disputes and short timeline to 2027 underpin trader consensus against normalization. Breakthroughs in verified disarmament or major political shifts in Beirut could still alter the trajectory before the deadline.