IBM’s Q3 2026 earnings release, scheduled for October 21 after the close, anchors trader sentiment with consensus estimates of roughly $2.87 EPS and $16.84 billion revenue. The 82% implied probability of a beat draws from the company’s multi-quarter history of positive surprises, resilient software growth, and recent AI-focused deals such as the multi-year agreement with Together AI. Q2 results showed revenue softness and mainframe weakness that prompted a modest full-year growth trim, yet adjusted EPS held steady and free-cash-flow trends remain supportive. Analysts have kept estimates largely stable into the print, reflecting measured expectations around deal timing and consulting demand. The report will test whether productivity gains and hybrid-cloud momentum can offset infrastructure variability.