IBM’s strong historical earnings surprise record—beating estimates in 79% of recent quarters—combined with momentum in its high-margin software and AI infrastructure segments underpins the 82% market-implied probability of a Q3 2026 beat. Consensus estimates call for $2.87 EPS and roughly $16.84 billion in revenue, reflecting modest year-over-year growth amid delayed large deals and mainframe variability. Recent catalysts include a multi-year $240 million AI inference agreement and sustained software ARR expansion, while productivity gains support the company’s margin targets ahead of the October 21 release. Traders weigh these factors against potential execution risks in a mixed analyst environment.