**Howard Lutnick remains the confirmed U.S. Secretary of Commerce, a role he has held since his February 2025 Senate confirmation by a 51-45 vote.** As of mid-October 2026, he continues to lead active trade negotiations, including recent bilateral discussions with India and Vietnam on tariffs and agreements, while overseeing Commerce Department priorities such as export controls and technology policy. No official statements, leaks, or reported conflicts have emerged indicating an imminent departure or presidential decision to replace him before the October 31 deadline. Trader consensus at 95% for “No” aligns with this stability, as cabinet-level changes typically require clear catalysts like resignation, dismissal, or confirmed scandal. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected health event, late-breaking controversy tied to prior business ties, or a sudden administration realignment, though none are currently indicated within the narrow remaining window.