Andy Burnham’s ascent to prime minister in July 2026 after Keir Starmer’s resignation has anchored trader expectations for continuity, with the 89.5% consensus on exactly two prime ministers by end-2027 reflecting his current stability. Burnham has consolidated support through by-election wins, a well-received party conference, and Labour’s modest poll recovery, while facing no active leadership challenge despite economic pressures. An autumn budget and cost-of-living concerns introduce some risk, yet the absence of imminent catalysts for another transition—coupled with the next general election not due until 2029—keeps the probability of a third prime minister low at 10.5%. The slim 0.3% chance of four or more underscores how few scenarios could produce further rapid turnover in the remaining period.