Traders assign a 96.9% implied probability that Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor will not receive a prison sentence, reflecting the absence of formal charges eight months after his February 2026 arrest on suspicion of misconduct in public office tied to Jeffrey Epstein disclosures. The investigation remains active following U.S. document releases, yet Thames Valley Police have faced a significant procedural setback with the October 2026 High Court ruling quashing search warrants on legal grounds, prompting separate proceedings over seized material scheduled into 2027. Historical patterns of limited criminal accountability for senior royals, combined with the high evidentiary threshold for such offenses and the former prince's ongoing legal challenges, underpin the strong market consensus. Late developments such as retained evidence leading to charges or new disclosures could still shift outcomes, though these remain low-probability paths under current conditions.