Recent Houthi threats, including a July 2026 blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels and attacks on tankers in August, have sustained rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope while limiting volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. IMF PortWatch data showed a 7-day average of 30 transits per day in the week ending October 4, 2026, with tanker flows notably softer at roughly 9 per day. Partial recovery in container services, as some carriers accelerate Red Sea returns amid easing insurance constraints, supports the market's tight clustering around 190–229 weekly transits. Key swing factors include any escalation in coastal strikes or regulatory approvals that could shift risk premiums and weekly totals in either direction during the October 12 period.