The leading trader consensus for low Gold Card volumes in 2026 stems from the program's limited rollout since its September 2025 launch via Executive Order 14351. As of mid-2026, official statements and court filings confirm only one finalized approval despite hundreds of applications and processing fees paid, with the program channeling applicants into existing EB-1 and EB-2 pathways rather than creating new visa capacity. A pending federal lawsuit challenging the program's legal basis remains unresolved after full briefing in September, while processing delays, security vetting, and the absence of congressional legislation continue to constrain throughput. These factors have kept reported issuances far below initial projections, aligning with the market's emphasis on the 1-100 range. Scheduled court rulings or new administration data releases could still alter volumes before year-end resolution.