Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and control of Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since September have heightened risks to commercial traffic, supporting elevated war-risk insurance premiums and forcing Saudi crude exports from Yanbu to rely on longer Cape routes. Recent strikes, including missile hits on Saudi tankers near Yanbu in August and gunfire on a Chinese-flagged vessel in early October, alongside a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping, have contributed to Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel and reduced daily transits through the strait. Trader sentiment reflects these disruptions amid counter-offensives by Yemeni government forces in early October, with upcoming catalysts including sustained naval advisories, oil-flow data from Kpler, and any escalation tied to broader regional tensions.