Recent southerly winds and a cold front passage have shifted Wellington into cooler maritime air, with MetService and international models (including GFS and Met Office) converging on daytime maxima near 9–11 °C for 16 October amid persistent showers and gusty southerlies exceeding 50 km/h. These conditions suppress diurnal warming by limiting insolation and enhancing mixing, keeping the highest temperature well below the seasonal average. Market-implied odds favor 11 °C (57.5 %) or 10 °C (30.5 %), reflecting model consensus on modest afternoon recovery but acknowledging residual uncertainty from exact frontal timing and local topography. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise peak before resolution.