Recent forecasts from European meteorological models, including ECMWF runs, position a daily maximum near 13–14°C as the most likely outcome for Warsaw on October 15, aligning with market-implied odds that assign roughly 81% combined probability to those two bins. Mild autumn conditions driven by zonal flow and limited cold-air advection have kept temperatures close to seasonal normals, with ensemble guidance showing low spread around these values. Short-range updates over the past 24–48 hours have reinforced this consensus, while historical October highs average near 13°C. Traders appear to be weighting the narrow forecast window and official agency guidance, with limited probability assigned to outliers beyond 12–15°C pending final observational confirmation.