Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, point to a daytime maximum of 12–13°C in Warsaw on October 15 under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies with light northwest winds and minimal precipitation. This consensus underpins the market’s tight 43.5%–39% split between 13°C and 14°C, as modest differences in afternoon cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the observed high by 1°C. High pressure near 1026–1027 hPa suppresses significant warm advection, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms but slightly below the long-term October average. Ensemble spreads show low probability of reaching 15°C or falling to 12°C, with final station readings expected to resolve the market.