Latest forecast consensus from GFS and regional models points to a daytime high of 9–10°C in Moscow on October 14 under persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds following a cold front on the 13th that dropped temperatures from the prior 16°C peak. This setup favors the market’s leading 9°C outcome at 35% implied probability, with 10°C close behind, as steering patterns limit daytime warming while humidity and precipitation suppress peaks relative to climatological norms near 9°C. Minor model spreads on exact timing of clearing or wind shifts could still nudge the final maximum toward 8°C or 11°C before resolution.