Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models converge on a daily maximum of 21–22°C for Milan on October 15 under mostly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and stable high pressure that limits daytime mixing and keeps advection modest. This places the highest probability on those two outcomes, with the slight edge to 21°C reflecting minor downward adjustments in some runs for increased low-level cloud. Small differences between 21°C and 22°C hinge on the precise timing of any afternoon clearing, urban heat-island effects at official stations, and boundary-layer moisture profiles that models resolve only coarsely at this range. No significant frontal passages or precipitation are expected to alter the thermal profile before the daily peak, keeping the distribution tightly centered while acknowledging typical forecast spread of ±1–2°C.