Recent forecast consensus from multiple models places Mexico City's October 13 high near 22–24 °C, consistent with the market's concentration on 25–26 °C outcomes amid 52 % implied probability for 26 °C or above. At 2,240 m elevation, daytime maxima are moderated by thinner air and typically peak in the low-to-mid 20s °C during October, with historical averages around 23 °C. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and light northeasterly flow have limited insolation in recent days, while any afternoon clearing could allow brief warming toward the upper end of the range. Traders are pricing in this modest variability ahead of official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations that will determine resolution.