Latest ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a peak daytime temperature of 33–35°C in Jeddah on October 15 under clear skies, light westerly winds, and stable high pressure, aligning with typical October Red Sea coastal conditions. Trader emphasis on 36°C (41%) over 35°C (33.5%) reflects uncertainty in the exact maximum, driven by potential urban heat effects near measurement stations, diurnal heating peaks, and minor model spreads in boundary-layer temperatures. Historical October averages near 34°C provide context, while the narrow spread between leading outcomes underscores sensitivity to any last-minute forecast adjustments from official monitoring.