Traders favor a 23–24°C high for Chongqing on October 15, with those outcomes holding roughly 68% combined implied probability amid closely bunched forecasts. Recent model consensus shows partly to mostly cloudy skies, light northeast winds, and scattered light rain or showers that limit daytime heating and keep surface temperatures near seasonal norms for mid-October in the subtropical Sichuan Basin. High humidity and stable atmospheric conditions further suppress peaks, while any afternoon clearing could allow brief warming toward 25°C. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated numerical models expected overnight will clarify whether increased cloud cover or reduced precipitation shifts the most likely maximum.