Persistent easterly winds and marine air advection are moderating daytime heating in Buenos Aires, with ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS converging on a peak temperature near 18–20 °C on October 13 under mostly cloudy skies and light drizzle. Recent surface observations from October 12 show stable conditions around 15 °C with dew points near 12 °C and sustained 15–20 km/h easterlies that limit solar insolation and suppress the diurnal temperature range. Trader consensus reflected in the 43 % implied probability for 20 °C and 28.5 % for 19 °C aligns with the upper end of these guidance ranges, while lower outcomes remain possible if cloud cover thickens further. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance expected overnight will provide the final observational inputs before market resolution.