Traders assign a 98% implied probability that Flávio Bolsonaro will not face charges or arrest by October 31 because an existing Supreme Court-authorized federal police inquiry into alleged corruption and money laundering tied to Banco Master film financing has produced no formal indictment or detention in the months since its July opening and September unsealing. Recent court actions, including the closure of a related preliminary inquiry and approval for visits to his imprisoned father, reflect procedural continuity rather than escalation. As the Liberal Party presidential frontrunner in the October 25 runoff, Bolsonaro benefits from institutional timing constraints and Senate dynamics that historically slow high-profile cases against leading candidates. Late-breaking developments such as new evidence presented to Justice André Mendonça or Alexandre de Moraes could still prompt swift action before month-end, though no such filings appear imminent.