Recent eurozone inflation data, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has pushed headline readings to 3.8% in September, nearly double the ECB’s 2% target and prompting upward revisions to staff projections. The ECB’s September 25-basis-point hike to a 2.50% deposit rate reflected this pressure, with policymakers signaling a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Reuters surveys and bank forecasts now show broad consensus for a pause at the October 29 meeting followed by another 25-basis-point increase in December, when fresh projections and inflation figures will be available. Resilient growth and limited second-round effects have tempered expectations for larger or more frequent moves, aligning trader pricing with a modest tightening path while leaving room for adjustment based on incoming energy and wage data.