Discord’s confidential January 2026 SEC filing with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan as underwriters has not advanced to a public S-1, shifting the base case for an IPO beyond 2026 and driving the 59.4% market-implied probability of no listing by December 31, 2027. Secondary-market indications on Forge Global have stabilized near $8.5–10 billion—well below the 2021 $15 billion peak—reflecting compressed consumer-platform multiples amid roughly $600–900 million in annualized revenue and 200 million monthly active users. These factors position the 11–14 billion and 8–11 billion brackets as the next most likely outcomes at 9.5% and 6.9%, respectively, while broader software-sector valuation trends and the absence of recent catalysts continue to anchor trader consensus on a delayed or lower-valued debut.