Discord’s confidential IPO filing in January 2026 with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan has yet to advance to a public S-1 or priced offering, driving the 61.5% implied probability of no listing by December 31, 2027. Secondary-market marks have settled near $8.5–10 billion after a sharp markdown from the 2021 $15 billion peak, aligning with modest 8–14 billion brackets that together command under 15% odds. Consumer-tech multiples remain compressed versus AI-focused peers, while leadership transition to CEO Humam Sakhnini emphasizes subscription and advertising monetization amid 200-plus million monthly users. Key near-term catalysts include any effective registration statement, updated Forge or Nasdaq Private Market pricing, and broader equity-market receptivity to non-AI consumer listings.