Strong trader consensus around a near-certain "No" for Dario Amodei's arrest by year-end reflects the complete absence of criminal investigations, charges, or credible enforcement actions against the Anthropic CEO. Ongoing civil copyright suits from music publishers and authors name him personally but center on alleged training data practices rather than criminal conduct, with motions to dismiss pending in federal court. Amodei remains focused on public AI safety advocacy, including calls for paced frontier model development and third-party evaluators, while Anthropic advances its IPO preparations amid typical industry scrutiny. Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented escalation from civil IP disputes to criminal charges, which historical precedent in similar cases makes highly improbable within the remaining timeframe.