Recent August Core PCE rose just 0.2% month-over-month, below consensus, amid downward revisions and softer non-market services prices that helped pull the year-over-year rate to 3.0%. This sets up September expectations around similar levels, with trader-implied odds split closely between 0.2% and 0.3% as core services and supercore components show mixed signals while goods and shelter may rebound modestly. Forecasters highlight potential moderation from August's elevated readings but note upside risks from discretionary services and vehicle prices. The October 29 release arrives ahead of the next FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting uncertainty over whether the recent cooling trend persists or stalls near 3% annualized.