Sotheby's holds an 81% implied probability of posting higher full-year 2026 sales, reflecting its stronger structural momentum and diversified platform heading into the second half. In 2025, Sotheby's already led with roughly $7 billion in consolidated sales against Christie's $6.2 billion, powered by luxury categories and private sales. Although Christie's posted a narrow H1 2026 edge at $4.5 billion total versus Sotheby's record $4.4 billion—driven largely by the standout S.I. Newhouse single-owner collection—Sotheby's delivered broader gains across design, Old Masters, watches, cars, and new markets while posting its highest sell-through rate since at least 2010. Recent fall results, including Sotheby's record Contemporary Curated sale, reinforce trader views that its luxury and financial-services advantages will sustain the lead through year-end auctions.