The high 87.5% market-implied probability for “No” on the Salvator Mundi’s public exhibition by December 31, 2026, reflects the painting’s prolonged absence from view since its 2017 record sale and the absence of any confirmed plans or announcements. Widely reported as owned by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and stored securely, likely in Geneva, the work remains tied to long-term Vision 2030 cultural projects whose timelines extend well beyond this year. Recent coverage and expert discussions, including October 2026 lectures, continue to highlight ongoing speculation without new exhibition commitments, while displays of workshop versions or artist-led projects around the motif do not satisfy resolution criteria. Traders appear to price in the historical pattern of secrecy and the lack of short-term catalysts that could shift the outlook before year-end.