**Persistent above-target inflation and recent policy tightening have anchored trader expectations for the Banco de la República’s October 30 meeting, with market-implied odds favoring no change at 65.5%.** Headline inflation climbed to 6.29% year-over-year in September, driven by food, regulated items, and services, while core measures reached multi-month highs and analyst year-end forecasts sit near 6.8%. The September 30 decision to raise the policy rate 25 basis points to 12.25%—in a split 4-2-1 vote—shifted the stance more restrictive amid El Niño risks and unanchored expectations, yet incoming data show softening activity, weaker manufacturing and retail figures, and a rising unemployment rate. This combination of sticky price pressures offset by cooling demand and the fresh rate adjustment supports the high probability of a hold, with only modest odds priced for an additional 25-basis-point increase. The next FOMC and domestic data releases will be key near-term inputs.