Canada’s August 2026 monthly GDP figure, scheduled for official release on October 30, carries a market-implied probability concentrated on a 0.2–0.3% month-over-month gain. Statistics Canada’s September 29 advance estimate already pointed to exactly that 0.2% expansion, supported by gains in mining and quarrying plus retail trade that more than offset weakness in oil and gas extraction. The reading follows a flat July outcome and three prior months of expansion, leaving the third-quarter path softer than the 3.3% annualized pace recorded in Q2. Traders are weighting the preliminary signal heavily while noting downside risks from September manufacturing and wholesale data plus potential tariff-related effects that have yet to register in August figures. The 0.0–0.1% and 0.4–0.5% brackets reflect residual uncertainty around final revisions ahead of the October print.