Blackstone’s Q3 2026 earnings expectations, with consensus EPS estimates clustered near $1.33–$1.40 and revenue around $3.2–$3.5 billion, reflect a projected sequential decline from the $1.52 EPS and $3.80 billion revenue delivered in Q2. This outlook stems from typical seasonality in fee-related earnings, lower performance fee realizations, and asset management dynamics in alternatives, even as the firm has posted consistent beats over the prior eight quarters. Market-implied odds near 50% capture uncertainty around AUM growth, investment income volatility, and broader equity market conditions. The October 22 release will serve as the decisive catalyst, with any upside surprise in fee income or realizations likely shifting probabilities sharply.