USGS data through October 12, 2026, show a magnitude 5.5 event near Tonga as the day's largest, with other activity limited to 5.4 in the Mid-Indian Ridge and scattered magnitudes below 5.0. This aligns with the market's strong 90.5% implied probability on the 5.5–5.6 bin, reflecting observed seismicity rather than forecast models. Global daily maxima commonly fall in this range absent major plate-boundary ruptures, consistent with USGS historical catalogs. A late-day event above 5.8 remains possible before UTC rollover but would require rapid escalation beyond current monitoring trends. Traders appear to weigh confirmed measurements heavily, with resolution hinging on final USGS-reviewed magnitudes for the full 24-hour window.