Recent minutes from Banxico’s September meeting revealed a split Governing Board, with three members open to evaluating a one-off 25 basis point cut at the November 5 decision if disinflation continues, while two emphasized caution amid upside inflation risks and external pressures. September headline CPI rose to 3.45% year-over-year—above the 3% target—though core inflation eased to 3.75%, supporting the 75.5% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% policy rate. Trader consensus reflects data dependence ahead of the October inflation release, alongside MXN stability and the Fed’s tightening path, which limits scope for near-term easing despite the dovish signals in the minutes.