The closely matched market-implied odds for the Bank of Korea’s November policy decision reflect uncertainty over whether persistent inflation pressures will prompt another 25 basis point hike from the current 3.00% benchmark rate or allow a pause to assess the impact of the July and August tightening. September consumer prices rose 2.9% year-over-year with core inflation at 2.8%, remaining above the 2% target amid cost-push effects from Middle East energy tensions and demand-pull from the semiconductor and AI-driven export recovery that has lifted growth forecasts. Governor Shin Hyun-song has emphasized a restrictive stance, with policy to hinge on inflation trajectories, economic trends, and financial stability, while analysts cite the need to monitor October data and the October 22 meeting outcome before the late-November decision.