Recent data showing annual inflation at 1.5% in August, comfortably inside the Bank of Israel’s 1-3% target range, combined with three prior 25-basis-point cuts that lowered the policy rate to 3.25%, underpin the strong market consensus favoring no change on October 21. Subdued price pressures, a firmer shekel, and moderating wage growth have reduced the urgency for further easing, while upcoming elections and fiscal uncertainty encourage policymakers to pause and reassess. The September CPI release on October 15 will provide the final input before the decision. A sharper-than-expected inflation decline or sustained currency appreciation could still prompt an additional cut, though such outcomes appear less probable given current trends and the bank’s updated forecast due alongside the rate announcement.