Recent Israeli inflation data at 1.5% annually remains comfortably inside the Bank of Israel’s 1–3% target range, supporting the consensus that the Monetary Committee will hold the policy rate at 3.25% on October 21. Four reductions already implemented this year, combined with a stronger shekel, steady GDP growth, and contained inflation expectations, have shifted analyst forecasts toward a pause after the latest easing steps. Trader pricing at 90.5% for no change reflects this data backdrop and the absence of fresh pressures requiring immediate adjustment. A surprise upside inflation print, sharper geopolitical escalation, or revised Research Department projections signaling further accommodation could still prompt a cut.