Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi Arabia launched a major offensive in early October 2026 that recaptured key coastal positions including Mokha and Dhubab, pushing Houthi fighters away from direct oversight of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Mayun Island. This reversed September gains by the Iran-aligned Houthis, who had seized territory and islands to threaten the narrow chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Shipping data shows roughly 30 daily transits in early October with no formal closure declared, though volumes remain below pre-2024 levels amid persistent missile and drone risks from inland positions. The UN has highlighted ongoing volatility and called for restored freedom of navigation, while major carriers continue selective rerouting. Upcoming consolidation of government control or renewed Houthi strikes on Saudi-linked vessels could shift the balance of trader assessments on near-term effective closure.