Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi Arabia launched a counteroffensive in early October 2026, claiming to have retaken key coastal positions and cleared Houthi fighters from areas overlooking Bab el-Mandeb, including advances toward Mokha and Mayun Island. Houthi forces, which seized the Yemeni shoreline and islands in September, reject these claims, maintain a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping, and continue drone and missile incidents near the strait. Weekly vessel transits have risen from September lows but stay well below pre-2023 norms amid elevated war-risk insurance, naval escort demands, and selective attacks. Ongoing ground clashes and Houthi retaliation strikes on Saudi targets keep disruption risks elevated through year-end.