Escalating Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, coupled with the ongoing U.S. naval blockade and permit requirements, have driven trader consensus toward sharply reduced transits through the Strait of Hormuz. AIS-visible traffic has averaged roughly 9 ships per day over the past week—about 10% of pre-crisis norms—with tanker movements even lower amid repeated strikes on outbound vessels in early October. Recent developments, including multiple projectile hits causing fires and IRGC claims of nightly interdictions of shuttle operations, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted widespread use of dark transits or southern corridors. With negotiations stalled and no imminent de-escalation signals, market-implied odds heavily favor averages in the 0-5 range by month-end, reflecting persistent chokepoint constraints on energy and bulk flows.