Ongoing Houthi threats, including the July 2026 Saudi shipping blockade and recent tanker strikes near Mokha, continue to constrain Bab el-Mandeb transits, anchoring trader consensus around the 25-29 daily average bin at 56% implied probability. IMF PortWatch data show a 7-day average of 30 cargo and tanker transits in the week ending October 4, up modestly from September’s 27 low but well below pre-crisis levels near 50-plus, reflecting elevated war-risk premiums and selective AIS suppression on Saudi-linked volumes. Container lines have accelerated partial Red Sea returns, with offered capacity doubling since late August to 448,273 TEU weekly by early October, supporting the 30-34 outcome at 25% while tanker flows remain capped. With resolution based on the end-October 7-day average just two weeks away, near-term escalation or stabilization could shift probabilities across the sub-25 or higher bins.