Amazon's Q3 2026 earnings, due October 29, carry a 62% market-implied probability of beating consensus amid robust AWS momentum. Second-quarter AWS revenue surged 37% year-over-year to $42.2 billion, with operating margins expanding to 39.4%, while the segment's $496 billion backlog more than doubled amid AI demand. Analysts project Q3 revenue near $202 billion and EPS around $1.96–$2.00, with HSBC forecasting results above the $197–202 billion sales guidance range. Elevated 2026 capex guidance at $220 billion and free-cash-flow pressure introduce some caution, yet Amazon's consistent recent beats and pricing power in cloud services underpin trader sentiment for an outperformance.